Why this score Specialist UK climate outlet with strong primary sourcing, data journalism, and a track record of careful archaeology on old climate predictions. Editorially committed to climate coverage; verify framing against primary data as with any outlet.
2026 will finish around 1.51°C above pre-industrial levels — the second-warmest calendar year on record behind 2024 — with a 35% chance of setting a new annual record and a 63% chance of exceeding 1.5°C.
A forward-looking projection recorded when made; resolvable once full-year 2026 temperature data close in early 2027.
2027 will be around 1.7°C above pre-industrial levels, comfortably setting a new record for the warmest year, as the developing El Niño has its largest impact that year.
A forward-looking projection recorded when made; resolvable once full-year 2027 temperature data close in early 2028.