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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

international organizationCredibility: 95%

Why this score? The UN's consensus climate-assessment body. Reports synthesize peer-reviewed literature under documented multi-stage review; its published projection ranges since 1990 are the spine of the projections-vs-observed record and have proven broadly well-calibrated.

Tracked Statements (1)

The global mean surface temperature change for the period 2016–2035 relative to 1986–2005 will likely be in the range of 0.3°C to 0.7°C (medium confidence).?

Context: Not yet due — the window does not close until the 2035 average is in. Observations through 2022 sit in the middle-to-warmer half of the projected range, which Ed Hawkins, revisiting the projection in 2023, judged still reasonable though perhaps cautious at its lower bound.