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While the precise number of jobs that AI may create or displace is uncertain, the technology together with broader economic trends could give rise to 41 million jobs in the United States over the next decade. In our base estimate, automation adoption could reduce labor demand by 21 percent of current work hours, equivalent to about 36 million jobs. For roughly 25 million of these workers, growth in their current occupations could offset the impact of automation, allowing them to stay in the same occupation, although their jobs could change. The remaining 11 million may need to switch occupations entirely.
A ten-year forecast in the McKinsey Global Institute’s “Workforce in motion” (29 September 2026), hedged with “could”. The authors’ own Fortune op-ed restates it as “will”. Comes due after 2035.