Story: state of ai/the money
Context: Forward, falsifiable accounting claim from a disclosed short-seller; resolves via later filings and any restatements. This cycle produced the first substantial evidence against it. FactSet reported on 23 July 2026 that contracted GPU leasing rates and second-hand prices for Nvidia H100 and A100 hardware launched three to six years ago are holding up well, and reads that as supporting the hyperscalers' 5–6 year depreciation schedules over the 3–4 year lives Burry argued for — while hedging that the evidence partly reflects today's compute scarcity. No company changed a depreciation schedule this cycle, and the 5–6 year assumption is described as unchanged. Alphabet's Q2 2026 filing shows depreciation of property and equipment rising 42% year over year to $7.104 billion while capex doubled; that gap is the mechanical result of spreading newly bought assets over a multi-year life and is not by itself evidence either way about the life assumed. Named counter-arguments already on record: CoreWeave's Intrator says older GPUs retain resale value; a depreciation professional notes useful-life estimates are audited in detail; Amazon has shortened, not extended, a subset of server lives.