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Nathan Lambert

person · journalistCredibility: 82%

Why this score? Independent ML researcher (Ai2) and author of Interconnects; technically expert, transparent about methods and corrections, but a solo analyst publishing opinionated analysis without institutional editing.

Tracked Statements (3)

The most likely (by far) outcome is for the status quo to continue and for the best open models to lag the best closed models by 6-9months.?

— Nathan Lambert · Feb 17, 2026
Context: Still open — resolves at end-2026 — but current readings run against it. On the Artificial Analysis index the best open model (Kimi K3, 60) trails the closed leader (Claude Opus 5, 63) by weeks, not the forecast 6-9 months. Caveats: the metric is a year-end state; Lambert warned public benchmarks may overstate open closeness; and the UK AI Security Institute puts open cyber capability 4-7 months behind. Recheck at resolution.

It's a very good thing for the open community.✓

— Nathan Lambert · Aug 4, 2025
Context: Independently corroborated: MIT Technology Review reported the same week that Chinese open models had overtaken Llama in popularity, and subsequent UK AISI and Artificial Analysis measurements consistently placed Chinese models atop the open-weight rankings through mid-2026.

Llama is no longer the open standard.✓

— Nathan Lambert · Apr 7, 2025
Context: Borne out within a year: by August 2025 MIT Technology Review reported Chinese open models (DeepSeek, Kimi, Qwen) had become more popular than Llama, and by mid-2026 the independent record — UK AISI's evaluations and the Artificial Analysis index — showed every leading open-weight model was Chinese until Thinking Machines' July 2026 entry.