Why this score Emeritus professor of ocean physics at Cambridge and a genuine polar field scientist with decades of submarine ice-thickness measurement behind him. Set below a default academic prior because his best-known public forecasts rest on extrapolation of ice-volume curves rather than physical modelling, a method he confirmed at a 2014 Royal Society workshop had no physical basis. His forecast track record is scored separately by timeline verdicts; this prior reflects standing and method only. FLAGGED FOR HUMAN REVIEW.
Next year or the year after that, I think it will be free of ice in summer and by that I mean the central Arctic will be ice-free. You will be able to cross over the north pole by ship.
False. Nine summers on the central Arctic is still frozen: NSIDC recorded a September 2025 minimum of 4.60m sq km, tenth lowest in the satellite record. When the claim was made, none of the 40 groups filing with the Sea Ice Prediction Network expected even a record low that year.
Arctic sea-ice extent in September 2015 will be 0.98 million square kilometres.
False by a factor of about 4.7: September 2015 ended with 4.6m sq km of ice, the fourth lowest on record at the time. The forecast was filed formally with the Sea Ice Prediction Network, but the method behind it was never published.