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Sam Altman

personCredibility: 50%

Why this score? CEO of OpenAI. Prolific public forecaster with strong promotional incentive; baseline reflects the motivated-principal discount — the ledger's verdicts, not this prior, should come to define the score.

Tracked Statements (11)

It would be ‘ill-advised’ for OpenAI to go public now, given safety concerns; the company will not list in 2026.?

Context: Said to Fortune on September 12. His chief financial officer told an August all-hands that OpenAI ‘will be a public company in 2027’, and could go sooner if the business keeps inflecting. OpenAI filed its prospectus confidentially with the SEC in June.

We've talked about the need to pace it as the models get more capable, which I think is in everyone's interest.?

Context: Altman, speaking to reporters on Capitol Hill, describing conversations with White House officials about pacing AI development. Neither the conversations nor their content can be checked from outside, and the sentence commits OpenAI to nothing: it reports a discussion and asserts a shared interest. It is recorded because of what surrounds it — the same week, hundreds of OpenAI employees including its chief scientist signed a letter asking the US government to build the tools to pace automated AI development, and Axios reports that OpenAI helped shape the letter's language, which is the outlet's own reporting and is attributed to no named source. Set against this page's existing record, it marks a change of position: OpenAI's own July 2023 White House commitments and its 2023 preparedness framework were voluntary self-governance, and the Future of Life Institute's July index finds the unilateral-pause pledges of the four largest developers weakened or voided.

Our internal belief is that by March of 2028 we may have a significant fraction of our research being done by AI systems in tandem with our own researchers.?

Context: Not yet resolvable; the date is 2028. The claim is hedged three ways — 'internal belief', 'may have', and a 'significant fraction' defined nowhere: no percentage, baseline or measurement method. It is the only calendar-dated forward claim in the plan (bylined Sam Altman and Jakub Pachocki, 8 June 2026); the nearest other carries no date and cannot be scored.

I don't think we're going to have the kind of jobs apocalypse that some of the companies in our space advocate — I'm delighted to be wrong.?

Context: An assessment of the near future, not a dated forecast; recorded as the reversal of his 2019 and July 2025 positions (both on this timeline). Its own claim — that no jobs apocalypse arrives — remains open.

OpenAI is on track to generate more than $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate this year, with plans to grow to hundreds of billions in sales by 2030.±

Context: Still mixed. The exit-month run rate did cross $20 billion, but audited 2025 GAAP revenue was $13.07 billion, so the framing overstates realised revenue. The 2030 limb remains open and is now trending: the run rate passed $40 billion by August 2026, roughly double the end-2025 pace.

More than 800 million people use ChatGPT every week.?

Context: Still unverified: self-reported by OpenAI's CEO on 2025-10-06, and no independent measure of any consumer AI product's user base exists to test it against. The trajectory (500M in March → 700M → 800M by October 2025, 'more than 1 billion' by 2026) has continued on the company's own telling, but the largest independent usage studies (Google's ATLAS, the IMF/Anthropic paper) exclude ChatGPT by construction, and a UN scientific panel notes no provider publishes a comparable cross-platform count.

This is the best model in the world at coding. This is the best model in the world at writing, the best model in the world at health care, and a long list of things beyond that.?

Context: Vendor superlative at launch. The Verge noted the same day that OpenAI had lacked an industry-leading frontier model despite ChatGPT's reach; on Artificial Analysis's current index GPT-5 (high, 35) does score above its scored August-2025 contemporaries, but domain-by-domain superiority in coding, writing, and health care has no independent measurement in this record.

Some areas — like customer support — are, just like, totally, totally gone.?

Context: A directional claim without a fixed horizon; recorded as the peak of Altman's displacement position. Directly contradicted by his own May 2026 statement, also on this timeline.

Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.?

Context: The one-sentence Center for AI Safety ‘Statement on AI Risk,’ signed by more than 350 executives, researchers and engineers — including the CEOs of OpenAI, Google DeepMind and Anthropic and Turing laureates Hinton and Bengio. A forward-looking, unfalsifiable claim about catastrophic risk; recorded as the field’s highest-profile collective warning, not as a checkable prediction. Yann LeCun of Meta pointedly did not sign.

We think it’s important that efforts like ours submit to independent audits before releasing new systems; we will talk about this in more detail later this year.±

Context: From OpenAI’s ‘Planning for AGI and Beyond’ (Feb 2023). Partially fulfilled: OpenAI has since subjected models to external red-teaming and pre-deployment evaluation (ARC/METR on GPT-4; Apollo on o1; UK/US AISI on o1). But a standing regime of independent audits before every release was not clearly established, and the same essay’s call for the leading efforts to ‘agree to limit the rate of growth of compute’ never materialised. Mixed. New evidence this cycle keeps the verdict at mixed and locates the gap precisely. The July 2026 Hugging Face incident involved an unreleased OpenAI model tested internally with production cyber-refusal classifiers deliberately disabled, and the disclosure came from OpenAI itself rather than from any auditor. Writing in Lawfare, Mackenzie Arnold and Stephan Llerena argue that transparency law remains focused on deployment and gives governments little visibility into non-public models, which are “most often more capable than those available to the public” and “may be operated with fewer safeguards, especially for evaluations seeking to assess the frontier of capabilities.” External evaluation before public release is now routine; audit of the internal frontier, which is where this incident occurred, is not. What followed the incident locates the gap more precisely still. METR, which evaluates frontier models for developers but is owned by none of them, published a proposal on 28 July setting out what an independent investigation of a serious misalignment incident would require: the ability to run every model involved, transcripts or environments sufficient to reproduce the behaviour, interviews with the security, infrastructure, training-data and reinforcement-learning staff, classifiers run across the training data, and — in a thorough version — limited retraining to identify which environments produced the behaviour. No investigation on those terms has been opened. Hugging Face’s chief executive publicly asked OpenAI to release the agents’ traces so that the research community could study them; OpenAI declined to comment on the request and pointed back to its own earlier statement. Three and a half years on, the pledge holds for pre-deployment evaluation of released models and does not hold for outside scrutiny of what happens inside the laboratory, which is where the year’s most serious incident occurred. Mixed, unchanged.

Entire classes of jobs will go away and not come back.?

Context: An open-ended forecast with no date or threshold; recorded as the baseline of Altman's public position, not scored. Compare his July 2025 escalation and May 2026 reversal, both on this timeline.