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international organization · UN environment agency; Emissions Gap ReportCredibility: 88%
Why this score? The UN's environment agency and publisher of the annual Emissions Gap Report, the standard reference on the distance between national pledges and the emissions path required for the Paris temperature goals. Assessment-grade: multi-author, externally reviewed, methodology and data published alongside each edition. Discounted slightly from a pure data agency because it also advocates for higher ambition, so its framing (not its figures) carries an institutional direction.
Tracked Statements (1)
Context: Not yet settled, and the wording admits two readings. A single calendar year above 1.5°C has already happened, in 2024; the Paris limit is defined against a multi-decade average, which is the harder test this is scored against.