Wieslaw Maslowski1 statement on record

Wieslaw Maslowski

person · Arctic sea-ice modeller63%credibility0 / 0 / 1

Why this score Polar oceanographer at the US Naval Postgraduate School running one of the highest-resolution Arctic sea-ice models of its era, published in the peer-reviewed Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences. Standard academic prior: his 2012 ice-free projection was explicitly framed as a hedged lower bound with high uncertainty, which is honest practice even where the number missed. FLAGGED FOR HUMAN REVIEW.

Tracked statements1
2012-12-31✗ false
Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.

False. Nothing close has happened: NSIDC put the September 2025 minimum at 4.60m sq km, tenth lowest in the satellite record and still more than four times the 1m sq km “ice-free” threshold. The projection was offered as a hedged lower bound rather than a central estimate — a caveat the coverage of it did not always carry.

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