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Wieslaw Maslowski

person · Arctic sea-ice modellerCredibility: 63%

Why this score? Polar oceanographer at the US Naval Postgraduate School running one of the highest-resolution Arctic sea-ice models of its era, published in the peer-reviewed Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences. Standard academic prior: his 2012 ice-free projection was explicitly framed as a hedged lower bound with high uncertainty, which is honest practice even where the number missed. FLAGGED FOR HUMAN REVIEW.

Tracked Statements (1)

Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. Regardless of high uncertainty associated with such an estimate, it does provide a lower bound of the time range for projections of seasonal sea ice cover.✗

— Wieslaw Maslowski · Dec 31, 2012
Context: False. Nothing close has happened: NSIDC put the September 2025 minimum at 4.60m sq km, tenth lowest in the satellite record and still more than four times the 1m sq km “ice-free” threshold. The projection was offered as a hedged lower bound rather than a central estimate — a caveat the coverage of it did not always carry.