World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

international organizationCredibility: 90%

Why this score? UN agency for meteorology; annual State of the Global Climate reports synthesize the major observational records.

Tracked Statements (1)

El Niño will strengthen to a very strong event peaking towards the end of 2026, and forecasts put at nearly 100 percent the likelihood it persists through February 2027.^?

— World Meteorological Organization (WMO) · Sep 3, 2026

Topic: climate change

Source ↗

Context: Not yet checkable. It settles once the peak three-month Oceanic Niño Index is known and whether El Niño ran unbroken through February 2027; 'very strong' conventionally means an ONI of 2.0°C or higher. WMO calls this its most confident El Niño outlook ever.