Climate scientist; Berkeley Earth research scientist and Carbon Brief contributor85%credibility0 / 0 / 0
Why this score Working climate scientist who publishes running, dated annual-temperature projections with stated odds and updates them in public as data arrive. Methods are open and the projections are checkable against the datasets within months; a forecaster, so scored on outcomes rather than authority.
Tracked statements
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? unverified
2026 as a whole is now on track to end up roughly tied with 2024 as the warmest year on record in ERA5, at 1.6C above preindustrial. And 2027 waiting in the wings to be quite a bit warmer on the back of a record-setting El Nino event.
Not yet checkable. It settles on the 2026 annual figure in the European ERA5 record, due in January 2027. NOAA, reading its own dataset, calls second place likeliest.