Wholestory

Last Updated: July 27, 2026

Infrastructure: The Physical Buildout

The backlash reached the states, and the grid produced its hardest number yet. New York became the first state to pause data centers — though the executive order's own text is narrower than the coverage of it, suspending only discretionary state permits above 50 MW, leaving local approvals untouched, and ending when a state impact statement lands rather than on a date; Maine's earlier first-in-nation bill turned out to have been vetoed. Hillsboro, Oregon, the state's densest data-center city, gave one day's notice and paused for 120 days. Ohio EPA dropped a draft permit whose own text called lowering state water quality "necessary to accommodate important social and economic development," after 7,000 comments. Texas approved a state water plan that does not count data centers at all, and will not separate their demand until 2032. On the grid, one fault in Ashburn took more than 3 GW off PJM in seconds — roughly double a comparable 2024 event — via a protection scheme that counts voltage dips and, at three in a minute, walks the building off the grid until a person walks it back; NERC says there are no ride-through standards for loads this size, and its own definitions of "load loss" exclude what happened. Against that, the money kept moving: OpenAI contracted 3.2 GW in rural Georgia without either party disclosing a permanent-jobs number, and the Wall Street Journal reported Nvidia weighing a ~$250 billion lease guarantee at SB Energy's 10 GW Ohio campus — where a cabinet officer, not a utility, allocates the power, and against a disclosed guarantee book of $3.5 billion. And the cycle's clearest finding was about the evidence itself: the 426 TWh-by-2030 figure now circulating under Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's name is not in that report, which publishes 176 TWh for 2023 and a range, not a point, for 2028 — while the number the coverage omits is that indirect water use at the power plants supplying data centers runs about twelve times their direct draw.

The Whole Story

AI runs on land, water, power, and silicon. The datacenter buildout has become one of the largest capital programs in industrial history — the fourteen largest operators alone are on course to spend roughly $750 billion in 2026 — and the discourse around it swings between alarm and dismissal, often untethered from the permits, filings, and utility data that actually measure it. This page tracks the buildout and its consequences on the record: what is being built where, what it consumes, what it pays, and what the GPU market that fills it costs.

The through-line this cycle is the gap between what is announced and what is real. Headline commitments run to the hundreds of billions, but the primary record keeps adjudicating in both directions — energized concrete at Abilene and Mount Pleasant on one side; a 600 MW Stargate expansion scrapped, up to half of 2026's planned capacity slipping, and a causal study finding data centers create almost no permanent jobs on the other.

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Oregon’s densest data-center city gives one day’s notice and pauses

The Hillsboro city council voted unanimously at a special meeting to adopt a 120-day moratorium on new land-use applications for data centers and battery energy storage sites — the first Oregon city to do so, in the city with 35 data centers, more than anywhere else in the state, and at least seven more under construction or in permitting. Mayor Beach Pace said the city gave only a day’s notice of the meeting to stop developers filing applications before the pause took effect; existing facilities and already-submitted applications are exempt, and state law caps the pause at 120 days with one possible extension. The Washington County Chamber of Commerce, the Westside Economic Alliance and three construction unions opposed it, the chamber arguing the council should wait for the governor’s data center advisory council to finish. Portland General Electric and Renewable Northwest asked that battery storage be excluded; councilors Cristian Salgado and Rob Harris included it anyway. Local opposition sharpened in spring 2026 when residents learned tech companies had secured decades of property-tax breaks, and the Oregon Legislature’s one-year pause on new Enterprise Zone data-center tax breaks earlier in the year did not stop new applications being filed.

A cabinet officer allocates 10 GW on a former uranium site, against a $3.5 billion disclosed guarantee book

The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that OpenAI is in advanced talks to lease SB Energy’s 10 GW campus at Piketon, Ohio, and that Nvidia is discussing guaranteeing roughly $250 billion of the financing behind the lease, with about $350 billion more of chip financing separately under discussion. Nothing is signed; neither company responded to requests for comment, and the reporting reaches this page through two write-ups of a single anonymously sourced story. What is not in doubt is the campus. SB Energy broke ground on 20 March at the former Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, which enriched uranium for the U.S. weapons programme from 1954 to 2001 and is still being decontaminated; the Department of Energy leases the federal land, and lists Portsmouth among 16 federal sites opened to data-center construction. Powering it takes 9.2 GW of new natural gas funded by $33.3 billion Japan committed under its trade agreement with the United States, plus $4.2 billion of 765 kV transmission and four substations with AEP Ohio that SB Energy has committed to pay for; the first phase of roughly 800 MW is expected in 2028, and DOE projects more than 10,000 construction jobs over four years against more than 2,000 permanent ones, with a $40 million community benefits agreement. Two things about the reported deal are checkable now. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick controls allocation of the site’s power — a cabinet officer, not a utility tariff or a market — and per the same report Anthropic, Microsoft and Google have all approached him about it in recent weeks. And the guarantee would be an order of magnitude outside anything Nvidia has disclosed: its Q1 FY2027 10-Q caps maximum gross exposure across all partner facility lease guarantees at $3.5 billion, with $712 million in escrow, and calls their fair value immaterial. $250 billion would be roughly seventy-one times that, more than a full year of Nvidia’s $215.9 billion FY2026 revenue, and about four times its $62.6 billion of cash and securities. Those filing figures reach this page through Tom’s Hardware’s reading of them rather than from the filings themselves. Nvidia’s stock fell 4.9% in midday trading on 27 July.

The ratepayer pledge widens, and the White House’s own example does not match the utility’s

President Trump announced an expansion of the voluntary Ratepayer Protection Pledge at an event at the Environmental Protection Agency, adding more than 200 utilities, developers, cooperatives and states. The White House says it is now signed by 23 governors and at least 187 companies — including 55 utilities and 27 data-center developers, among them NextEra, Duke Energy, American Electric Power, Southern Company and PG&E — and covers 80% of all power delivered to U.S. homes and businesses, a figure it does not show its working for. The pledge is nonbinding. Its Georgia example is worth reading against the underlying documents: the White House release says Southern Company is “freezing base rates through 2029” and delivering more than $1.7 billion in savings, over $100 a year for a typical residential customer. The Georgia Power release the White House links is titled as a freeze through 2028; Georgia Power’s own 22 July release describes a freeze through 2028 plus $102 in annual savings beginning in 2029; and Utility Dive reported in February that Georgia Power had quantified about $1.7 billion in benefits it <em>intends</em> to use to lower costs from 2029 to 2031. Matthew Freedman of the Utility Reform Network said the same companies signing the pledge are opposing California legislation that would force them to deliver on it. A recent ICF analysis projects monthly utility bills rising 15% to 40% by 2030 on demand growth.

Texas approves a state water plan that does not count data centers

The Texas Water Development Board approved the initial 2027 State Water Plan after denying a petition to add forecasts and historic figures for data centers’ water use; board staff recommended rejection on the ground that the state is late in its five-year planning cycle. The approved plan contains no specific data on large-scale digital infrastructure, so the statutory instrument Texas uses to plan its water supply will likely not account for the sector when it is finalized in 2027. Board attorney Breann Hunter said the agency is developing methodologies to separate data-center and crypto-miner demand for the following plan — which publishes in 2032. Board member Brady Franks defended the omission: “I just didn’t want folks to think that if it’s not in the water plan, someone’s not thinking about it or someone’s not considering it.” Texas ranks second among states for data-center-attributable emissions and second nationally for open and planned facilities. The board’s own record of the vote was not retrieved.

Electricity bills for American families will actually come down. They're going to have a lot of electricity left over, and they'll put that into the grid.?

President Trump, at the Ratepayer Protection Pledge event, on what the voluntary pledge will do to household power bills. He also told the assembled executives and governors that host communities “can’t fight it” and would become rich. The Associated Press disputed the premise in its own reporting, noting it is not clear that data centers generating their own electricity will offset the demand they add.

Context: Forward claim, no date given by the speaker; recorded against a 2028 horizon. It runs against every projection in this cycle’s record: ICF projects monthly bills rising 15% to 40% by 2030 on demand growth, and a Carnegie Mellon study cited by the Kansas Health Institute projects an 8% average U.S. increase by 2030, above 25% in central and northern Virginia. This page’s existing record shows residential bills already up about 27% since 2019. Resolves against EIA residential price data.

OpenAI contracts 3.2 GW in rural Georgia, and neither party gives a permanent-jobs number

OpenAI announced Project Camellia, a campus it is designing and developing in Effingham County, Georgia, about 45 minutes from Savannah, and contracted with Georgia Power for approximately 3,200 MW to be delivered in phases between 2028 and 2032 under a 25-year agreement. OpenAI agreed to provide up to 1,000 MW of flexible demand response, which Georgia Power calls among the largest single-facility demand-response commitments in the country — a superlative it does not benchmark. The large-load contract was still under review by Georgia Public Service Commission staff, and OpenAI describes the project as at the beginning of development with significant work remaining on infrastructure, phasing, design, financing and operating model: contracted for power, not permitted or built. The site sits inside the already industrially-zoned Savannah Gateway Industrial Hub; Data Center Frontier relays local reporting putting the initial investment at at least $20 billion across roughly 1,400 acres, a figure neither primary document states. OpenAI committed $80 million in community benefits over the life of the project, up to $71 million in Codex credits for Georgia students at $100 each — denominated in its own product at its own list price — and an annual independent audit, with no auditor named and no first-audit date. It expects to be the county’s largest taxpayer; neither document discloses any abatement, exemption or payment-in-lieu arrangement either way. On jobs, both parties give a single undifferentiated figure: OpenAI promises “thousands of construction and permanent on-site jobs” and Georgia Power “thousands of new jobs”. The absence is the finding. Where operators did split the two this month, the ratios ran 12 to 1 at Meta’s newly operating Temple, Texas site (about 1,200 peak construction workers, about 100 permanent) and 15 to 1 at a proposed New Zealand campus.

One fault takes more than 3 GW of data centers off the grid in seconds

A transmission line fault in Ashburn, Virginia — “Data Center Alley”, the world’s densest concentration of data centers — caused hyperscale facilities to transfer automatically to backup power, removing more than 3 GW of demand from the PJM grid within seconds, about 3% of system demand at the time, and producing a measurable voltage and frequency disturbance across a grid reaching from the Mid-Atlantic into the Midwest. PJM reported no reliability impact and has published no event analysis; it has not disclosed the fault’s cause, nor whether the 3 GW came from one customer or several campuses. Dominion Energy said the utility shed no load and disconnected nobody: “the data centers’ own control systems transferred them to backup power for a very short period of time.” That is consistent with the primary record. NERC’s January 2025 incident review of a comparable July 2024 event in the Eastern Interconnection found approximately 1,500 MW of loss, all of it disconnected on the customer side, all of it data-center-type load; about 1,260 MW did not return for hours. The mechanism NERC documents is not a simple voltage trip but a counter: a protection scheme tallies voltage disturbances, and typically three within a minute sends the facility to backup power until someone reconnects it manually. A three-attempt automatic reclosing sequence on the faulted line produced six faults in 82 seconds. NERC also notes its own glossary defines load loss in two ways that both explicitly exclude this kind of customer-initiated reduction — which is how a 3 GW disappearance and “no load was shed” can both be true — and states that there are currently no voltage ride-through Reliability Standards for large loads at all. Its March 2026 white paper found the existing standards inadequate for integrating loads of this kind; responses to a Level 3 Essential Action Alert are due 3 August 2026 and an initial standard is expected by year end. Three weeks earlier PJM had issued its first-ever backup-generator warning during a heat wave; no generators were dispatched. Against the 1,500 MW of July 2024, the July 2026 response is roughly double.

Electricity rates will not go up for residents because of this project. Georgia families will not subsidize this project.?

OpenAI’s own blog post announcing the Effingham County campus, recorded as a claim rather than a fact: a company’s account of its own project’s consequences stays a statement on this page until the record shows otherwise. The post continues that OpenAI “will pay the full cost of the infrastructure and electric-service costs required to serve it” and that under Georgia Public Service Commission rules those costs cannot be passed to existing ratepayers. Georgia Power restates the commitment as the customer’s — “As outlined in OpenAI’s announcement” — rather than certifying it, and the large-load contract was still under PSC staff review when both documents published.

Context: Forward claim about a project whose power contract is not yet approved and whose first phase is not due until 2028. It rests on Georgia PSC large-load rules first approved in January 2025, which the utility says bar passing such costs to existing customers; whether that holds in practice is what the claim will be judged on. Resolves against Georgia Power rate filings and PSC decisions over the contracted 2028–2032 phase-in.

Ohio drops a permit whose own text called dirtier water necessary for development

Ohio EPA said it would not finalize draft NPDES general permit OHD000001, which would have set standard terms for data centers discharging waste- and stormwater into state waterways, and will instead review such permits individually. The draft, introduced in October 2025, stated in its own text that “a lowering of water quality of various waters of the state associated with granting coverage under this permit is necessary to accommodate important social and economic development in the state of Ohio.” More than 7,000 public comments were filed by mid-January, and opposition ran across party lines, including Senator Bernie Moreno and Amy Acton, the Democratic candidate for governor. Nathan Johnson of the Ohio Environmental Council said a one-size-fits-all permit “would have eliminated meaningful agency review of data center water pollution discharges and cut notice and comment opportunities for local communities.” The two accounts of the permit’s reach differ: Circle of Blue describes it as covering data centers statewide regardless of size, location or type, while the Columbus Dispatch scopes it to new facilities without access to sewerage that treats wastewater. Neither the draft’s discharge volumes, pollutant limits nor receiving waters are reported, and the draft permit document itself was not retrieved.

A widely repeated AI power figure is not in the report it is credited to

Coverage of a new Kansas Health Institute report put two numbers into circulation: that U.S. data centers consumed 183 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2024, and that this will reach 426 TWh by 2030. Utility Dive attributed them to “data from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory” and KHI’s executive summary footnotes them to its endnote 1, the 2024 LBNL report. Neither number appears in that report. LBNL’s figures are 176 TWh for 2023 — 4.4% of U.S. electricity — and a deliberately published 2028 scenario <em>range</em> of roughly 325 to 580 TWh; it gives no 2024 point estimate and no 2030 figure at all. KHI’s own body text footnotes the same sentence to a different source, Pew Research Center. Both documents are linked below and the comparison takes one click. The LBNL report also carries a number the coverage leaves out. The water consumed at the power plants supplying U.S. data centers — their indirect footprint — came to nearly 800 billion litres in 2023, about twelve times the 66 billion litres (roughly 17 billion gallons) of direct on-site water that dominates the argument. Yet their water intensity of 4.52 litres per kilowatt-hour runs only about 4% above the U.S. average of 4.35, and their emissions intensity of 0.34 kg/kWh sits slightly below the national 0.35: the footprint is a volume story, not a dirtier-supply one. LBNL separately flags that its own water model may run low, and that correcting one cooling assumption would raise modelled hyperscale water intensity by about a quarter. KHI’s report contains no original measurement — it reviews 45 sources and scans state and local policy — and states plainly that publicly available facility-level data does not exist, so researchers must model rather than measure.

New York becomes the first state to pause data centers — more narrowly than reported

Governor Kathy Hochul signed Executive Order No. 62, the first statewide pause on data-center development in the United States. Two legal readings of the Order’s text describe something considerably narrower than the wire coverage of it. The Order holds in abeyance the Department of Environmental Conservation’s <em>discretionary</em> permits for facilities consuming 50 megawatts or more; it expressly does not reach permits, approvals or licenses from local governments, so site plan approval, zoning relief and municipal building permits continue on their normal track; it exempts applications already deemed complete before 14 July; and it ends not on a calendar date but when the Department of Public Service submits a Generic Environmental Impact Statement, with the one-year figure a target rather than a term. The Associated Press described the same instrument as “an order banning construction of large server warehouses in New York for a year” and Al Jazeera as a “one-year moratorium on new data centre construction”. The Order displaced the Responsible Data Center Development Act, which both houses passed in June at a 20 MW threshold and which Hochul has not signed. Roughly 12 GW of data-center load sits in the NYISO interconnection queue, more than 8 GW of it added during 2025, on the governor’s office’s figures. Three dated checkpoints follow: Empire State Development opens a Community Investment Framework for comment by 13 August, DPS must stand up a Data Center Interconnection Working Group by 12 September, and DPS must report to the Public Service Commission on transmission owners’ large-load study practices by 12 October. The Order’s own text could not be retrieved — governor.ny.gov returns HTTP 403 and no archived copy exists — so every account of it here is second-hand.

Google will replenish more water than it consumes across its data-center sites by 2030, and U.S. data centers in aggregate use less than 1% of the nation’s water.±

Context: Google's replenishment pledge is a forward commitment (unresolved). The aggregate "less than 1%" framing is broadly consistent with national estimates but sits in tension with primary local records — e.g. Google's own quintupled draw at The Dalles reaching ~40% of that city's supply — where impacts concentrate. True in aggregate, misleading locally. This cycle adds a second problem with the aggregate framing rather than the local one: the standard operational metric, Water Usage Effectiveness, counts neither the potable-versus-reclaimed distinction nor the water consumed generating the electricity, and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory puts that indirect footprint at nearly 800 billion litres for 2023 against 66 billion litres of direct on-site water — roughly twelve times larger. LBNL separately states its own water model may run low, and that correcting one cooling assumption would lift modelled hyperscale water intensity by about a quarter. Verdict held at mixed.

Maine moves to become the first state to ban large data centers

The Maine Legislature passed a first-in-the-nation bill, LD 307, to ban development of large-scale (>20 MW) data centers for 18 months, awaiting the governor’s signature. It capped a wave of local resistance: by this point at least 11 states had introduced legislation to limit or ban data-center construction, and the Data Center Tracker counted at least 100 local moratoria nationwide. Governor Janet Mills subsequently vetoed the bill, citing its effect on a $550 million redevelopment project — which is why the first statewide pause to take effect was New York’s executive order three months later. The veto is recorded here from a single legal analysis; the Maine legislature’s own record has not yet been checked.

GPU rental pricing is more likely to keep rising than falling through 2026.?

Context: Forward-looking market call by SemiAnalysis that directly reverses the late-2025 oversupply consensus (including Introl’s December-2025 forecast of a further 10-20% decline). Still open, and running in the predicted direction as of this cycle: BCG, citing the Silicon Data H100 rental index, reports the H100 rate rose from about $1.96/GPU-hour in late 2025 to $2.64 in April 2026, and that the index has risen about 2.2% a month since January 2025 — though it fell as much as 11% at one point in that span, and the live index reading in late July 2026 was $2.53, below the April figure. Resolves on where the rate ends 2026 against where it began.

Even 2025 projects planned two to three years ago struggled to come online, so 2026 projects face even steeper challenges.?

Context: Forward-looking assessment by a Sightline Climate analyst on build delays; tagged as a prediction for The Record. Still open, and this cycle's record runs its way. Meta's Temple, Texas site began serving traffic in 2026 having been announced in 2022 and paused for redesign — four-plus years announcement to operation. Hut 8's "1 GW" Beacon Point campus carries 1,000 MW of secured utility capacity against 704 MW of signed IT leases. Southern Company reported a 75 GW large-load pipeline of which 10 GW is fully contracted. And Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory names "projects that have not yet selected a power provider" as a known source of overestimation in rival load forecasts. None of this resolves the specific 2026 cohort claim; it resolves against how much of the 2026 pipeline actually energizes by year end.

Meta’s Hyperion balloons to 5 GW and more than $50 billion

Meta announced it is expanding the Richland Parish “Hyperion” project to 5 gigawatts of compute at a cost of more than $50 billion — a five-fold price escalation from the $10 billion announced 19 months earlier. Meta projects over 7,500 peak construction workers and 1,000 operational jobs, and points to more than $1.6 billion in local contracts, over $1 billion in infrastructure, and up-to-$50,000 teacher bonuses. A company spokesperson said the site should reach 2 GW by 2030 and the full 5 GW by around 2032.

Meta pays the full costs of the energy, water and related infrastructure the data center uses, so consumers don’t bear the cost.±

Context: Meta cites an Entergy agreement projected to deliver >$2 billion in customer savings over 20 years. But the primary utility record shows Entergy building 2,262 MW of new gas capacity to serve the site, and Louisiana consumer advocates (Alliance for Affordable Energy) and a Public Service Commissioner have warned residential ratepayers could ultimately absorb costs. The “full costs” claim is contested by the filings it rests on.

Microsoft’s Fairwater comes fully online

Microsoft completed and brought its first Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin data center online (energized in April 2026, fully operational by late June), reporting nearly 550 on-site full-time staff — growing toward about 800 with a second facility — against roughly $4.7 billion in local spending planned for 2024-2028. The permanent-headcount figure, set beside thousands of construction jobs, again illustrated how few lasting jobs a hyperscale campus supports.

The industry’s water use stays a black box

Reporting found hyperscalers generally do not disclose per-site water consumption, often negotiating under shell companies and NDAs. Google’s infrastructure-sustainability lead argued that a facility’s peak water-permit capacity overstates its real annual draw, and the company published five water-stewardship commitments — including replenishing more water than it consumes at its sites by 2030. The dispute — aggregate reassurance versus local, per-site reality — is the unresolved core of the water question.

States split: West Virginia pre-empts local control as others resist

West Virginia’s HB 2014 (enacted April 2025, effective July 2025) bars counties and municipalities from restricting certified high-impact data centers and microgrids — a state pre-emption of local zoning framed in national-security terms. It marks the opposite pole from the moratorium wave: where some jurisdictions raced to block the buildout, others moved to strip localities of the power to slow it.

Records show Google quintupled water use at The Dalles

Documents released under a public-records settlement showed Google roughly quintupled its water consumption at The Dalles, Oregon between 2012 and 2025, to about 40% of that city’s entire supply — a concrete local figure that cut against the industry’s reassuring aggregate framing and underscored why per-site disclosure matters.

The build-out becomes one of history’s largest capital programs

BloombergNEF put 2026 capital spending by the 14 largest data-center operators near $750 billion (up from under $450 billion in 2025), with over 23 GW of capacity under construction globally across 831 sites at the end of September 2025 — about three-quarters in the U.S. Hyperscalers signed more than $100 billion of neocloud compute leases in six months. Dell’Oro separately projects global data-center capital spending to exceed $1 trillion in 2026.

The glut reverses: on-demand GPU capacity sells out again

Within a year of the price collapse, the compute market flipped back to shortage. On-demand rental capacity was effectively sold out across GPU types; H100 one-year contract pricing had rebounded to $2.35/GPU-hour (up ~40% from an October 2025 low of $1.70), and customers were paying up to $14/GPU-hour for AWS B200 spot instances. New Blackwell (GB200/GB300) deployments slipped into mid-year, with cloud capacity booked out through late 2026 — driven by surging inference and agentic workloads.

Seven hyperscalers sign a White House ratepayer-protection pledge

Google, Meta, Oracle, xAI and Amazon joined Microsoft and OpenAI in signing a White House pledge committing to protect ordinary utility customers from bearing data-center power costs — an implicit acknowledgment that the buildout’s cost-shifting onto ratepayers had become a political liability.

OpenAI and Oracle scrap the Abilene expansion

OpenAI and Oracle ended talks on a planned 600 MW expansion at the Abilene Stargate campus, cancelling the add-on while the existing site kept operating — a concrete instance of the announced-versus-built gap inside even the flagship program.

Half the pipeline may be vapor: 30-50% of 2026 data centers set to slip

Sightline Climate estimated that 30-50% of large data centers scheduled to come online in 2026 would be delayed by power constraints, equipment shortages and financing — and that of at least 16 GW planned globally for 2026 (nearly triple the prior year), only about 5 GW was actually under construction. Developer QTS had announced a ~5 GW pipeline since 2024 with only about a quarter still under construction. The gap between announced and built capacity had become the industry’s defining measurement problem.

PJM raises its long-term forecast but trims the near term

The largest U.S. grid operator, PJM, raised its 10-year summer-peak growth rate to 3.6% a year (to about 222 GW by 2036) — more than ten times its 2021 outlook — while simultaneously cutting its 2027 and 2028 peaks by roughly 4 GW on stricter vetting of speculative data-center requests. Its planning chief, Jason Connell, said data-center growth still exceeds anything seen in recent decades. The revision captures the core tension: enormous long-run demand, but a large share of near-term projects that never materialize on schedule.

U.S. electricity demand breaks two decades of flatness

The EIA’s data showed U.S. electricity demand grew about 1.7% a year from 2020 through 2025 — after growing just 0.1% a year from 2005 to 2019 — with data centers the primary driver. After a generation of flat load, the AI build-out had bent the national demand curve upward, the single clearest measured signal that the physical build-out is reshaping the grid.

The bill lands on households: rising rates and record utility debt

By the end of 2025 the average U.S. residential electricity price had risen to about 19 cents/kWh — roughly 27% above 2019 — and climbed 11.5% in 2025 alone, outpacing inflation. In high-concentration Virginia, some bills rose up to 267% over five years. U.S. utilities requested more than $29 billion in rate increases in the first half of 2025 (double a year earlier), and outstanding household utility-bill debt reached $25 billion. Analysts attribute the increases mainly to transmission and distribution build-out and high capacity-auction prices, with data-center load a growing pressure.

Ground breaks on the Wisconsin Stargate campus

OpenAI, Oracle and Vantage Data Centers broke ground on a Stargate campus in Port Washington, Wisconsin, which OpenAI said would create 4,000 construction jobs and be designed water-positive with closed-loop cooling and developer-funded power infrastructure. The site would later become a flashpoint over its roughly $450 million in tax benefits.

Five-year U.S. peak-demand forecasts jump six-fold

Grid Strategies’ National Load Growth Report put the U.S. five-year peak-demand forecast at 166 GW — more than six times the 24 GW forecast just three years earlier, with data centers driving the bulk. The same report cautioned that utility filings likely overstate 2030 data-center load by around 25 GW (~40%), and that the U.S. built only 888 miles of new high-voltage transmission last year against the ~5,000 miles a year the Department of Energy says is needed to connect it.

NVIDIA posts a record $57B quarter as Blackwell ramps

NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue of $57 billion (up 62% year over year), with data-center revenue of $51.2 billion — nearly 90% of sales. CFO Colette Kress said the Blackwell Ultra platform had become the company’s leading architecture across all customer categories, and guided the next quarter to about $65 billion. The chip market’s glut in rentals coexisted with unprecedented demand for the newest silicon.

A causal study finds data centers create almost no permanent jobs

Ball State economist Michael J. Hicks, using a staggered difference-in-difference analysis of Texas data centers, found the net local employment effect of a new data center is statistically indistinguishable from zero — the only significant effect being roughly 195 temporary construction jobs. He concluded that tax incentives for data centers cannot be justified on job-creation grounds and recommended governments suspend them — a primary empirical rebuttal to the core promise host communities are sold.

Amazon opens Project Rainier — the largest non-NVIDIA AI cluster

Amazon unveiled Project Rainier, an $11 billion, 1,200-acre campus near New Carlisle, Indiana, dedicated to training Anthropic’s Claude models and running roughly 500,000 Amazon Trainium 2 chips — the largest known deployment not built on NVIDIA silicon, with a target of 1 million chips by year-end. Fully built out, the site is planned for 30 buildings and more than 2.2 gigawatts. At peak, over 4,000 construction workers a day were arriving in a town of about 1,900.

Meta’s Louisiana project doubles to $27 billion

Meta and Blue Owl Capital formed a joint venture to build and manage the Richland Parish facility, now valued at $27 billion and planned as a 2 GW data center — the second step in a cost escalation that would nearly double again within a year.

OpenAI names five more Stargate sites, claiming nearly 7 GW

OpenAI announced five additional U.S. Stargate locations — three Oracle-developed sites (Shackelford County TX; Doña Ana County NM; a Midwest site) and two SoftBank/SB Energy sites (Lordstown OH; Milam County TX) — saying that combined with Abilene and CoreWeave projects, Stargate now reached almost 7 gigawatts and over $400 billion. SoftBank had broken ground at Lordstown; the balance remained planned capacity drawn from a search over 300 proposals across 30-plus states.

Microsoft unveils Fairwater, its Wisconsin flagship

Microsoft detailed Fairwater, a 315-acre, three-building (1.2 million sq ft) AI data center in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin running a single cluster of hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA GB200 GPUs. Microsoft said the facility uses closed-loop liquid cooling that is filled once and recirculated with near-zero evaporative loss — a design pitched directly against the water criticism dogging the industry.

The first official audit of AI’s water use finds the data barely exists

A UK Government report concluded there is no reliable industry data on data-center resource use — only about 40% of operators even track their water consumption. Its figures set the scale of what is unmeasured: a single 100 MW hyperscale facility can consume around 2.5 billion litres of water a year (the household use of ~80,000 people), with roughly 80% of evaporative-cooling water lost for good, plus up to 2.4 gallons per kWh embedded in the power it draws.

The first Stargate campus energizes in Abilene

The flagship Stargate site in Abilene, Texas came online on Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, with Oracle beginning delivery of the first NVIDIA GB200 racks. Against a landscape of announcements, Abilene was the proof point that at least part of the $500 billion pledge had become operating hardware.

The GPU glut arrives: rental prices begin to collapse

AWS sharply cut prices on its H100 (P5) instances in June 2025, triggering a broad hyperscaler reset. The Silicon Data H100 rental index had already fallen to $2.36 from $3.06 the prior September, and a low-cost marketplace tier had opened a 3-to-4x gap beneath hyperscaler on-demand rates. NVIDIA’s supply ramp, a wave of 300-plus new rental providers, and the shift from training to inference were turning scarce silicon into a commoditized rental good.

Washington cuts off NVIDIA’s China chip, forcing a $5.5B write-down

The U.S. government imposed indefinite export-licensing requirements on NVIDIA’s China-market H20 accelerator (and AMD’s MI308), effectively barring sales. NVIDIA took a $5.5 billion charge for unsellable inventory and commitments; China had been about $17 billion, or 13%, of its revenue. The Commerce Department said it was executing the president’s national-security directive — the first time compute access itself became an instrument of state power at this scale.

Harvard study: utilities are quietly socializing Big Tech’s power costs

A Harvard Electricity Law Initiative paper by Eliza Martin and Ari Peskoe, reviewing nearly 50 utility rate proceedings, found utilities using rate structures and secret contracts to shift the cost of new infrastructure built for data centers onto ordinary ratepayers. It provided the primary-record mechanism behind the rising bills — the cost-shift happens through regulatory proceedings, largely out of public view.

Stargate: a $500 billion bet on American compute

OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank announced the Stargate Project at the White House — a stated commitment of up to $500 billion and 10 gigawatts of new U.S. AI data-center capacity. Announced as the single largest private compute build-out ever proposed, its headline figure was a commitment, not money spent; the rest of the year would test how much of it turned into energized concrete.

Meta picks rural Louisiana for its largest data center

Meta announced its then-largest AI data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana — priced at $10 billion across 4 million square feet, projecting 500 permanent jobs and 5,000 construction jobs. To serve it, the regulated utility Entergy planned three new natural-gas plants totaling 2,262 MW over a 15-year term — a fossil build-out attached to a single customer that would become the project’s central controversy.

Microsoft restarts Three Mile Island to power AI

Constellation Energy signed its largest-ever power-purchase agreement — a 20-year deal to sell 100% of a restarted Three Mile Island Unit 1 (renamed the Crane Clean Energy Center, ~835 MW) to Microsoft, targeting a 2028 return and a license extended to 2054. Constellation later put the restart cost at about $1.6 billion. A reactor shut in 2019 on economics was being revived specifically to feed data-center demand — the starkest sign yet that AI’s appetite was reshaping the power system.

xAI stands up Colossus — 100,000 GPUs in 122 days

Elon Musk's xAI, working with NVIDIA, Dell and Supermicro, brought its Colossus supercomputer online in Memphis, Tennessee: 100,000 NVIDIA Hopper (H100) GPUs wired on a single NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet fabric, built in 122 days with 19 days from first rack to training. It was the era's proof that a frontier-scale cluster could be assembled in months, and xAI immediately began doubling it toward 200,000 GPUs.

Before the build-out, U.S. data centers already drew 4.4% of the grid

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in the analysis later cited by the Congressional Research Service, put U.S. data-center electricity use at roughly 176 terawatt-hours in 2023 — about 4.4% of all U.S. consumption. It is the pre-AI-build-out baseline against which every later load-growth forecast is measured.

The AI boom opens with an acute GPU famine

As demand for generative-AI training exploded, the market for NVIDIA's H100 accelerator seized up: Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud were effectively out of capacity for buyers wanting hundreds to thousands of chips, and delivery lead times peaked near 11 months. On-demand cloud rental for a single H100 routinely ran $7–$12 per GPU-hour, and an 8-GPU HGX H100 server sold for roughly $300,000–$380,000. Compute scarcity — not model design — was the binding constraint on the field.