Chapter 1
The Black Sea is where the long-range war is fought against what moves…
The Black Sea is where the long-range war is fought against what moves by sea: ferries and warships, cargo ships and tankers, grain terminals and ports. Both sides attack it. Ukraine’s sea and aerial drones have gone after the shipping that supplies Crimea, the port of Novorossiysk and its grain and oil trade, and Russian ships ever further along the coast; Russia has struck Ukraine’s own ports around Odesa. Each step has widened the target set, and in October 2026 it widened again, to merchant ships off Romania and Bulgaria, two NATO members, with sailors killed and missing and no attacker established.
Chapter 2
Ukraine’s campaign at sea began against Crimea’s supply lines
Ukraine’s campaign at sea began against Crimea’s supply lines. By its own commander’s count its forces struck 183 vessels in the Black and Azov Seas in July 2026 and destroyed the five ferries that carried most military transport across the Kerch Strait — figures that are Ukraine’s claims; the Institute for the Study of War reports the countermeasures Russia took, diverting drone crews and air defence to guard shipping and evacuating Black Sea Fleet families from Sevastopol. From there the targets moved outward and into trade. On August 3 drones hit a Cameroon-flagged cargo ship on the route from Turkey into Novorossiysk, the first third-country merchant ship on that route. Russian insurers stopped covering war risk in the Black and Azov Seas, and foreign insurers raised their rates. On the night of August 11–12 Ukraine’s largest strike of the war on Novorossiysk halted two of Russia’s largest grain terminals, and satellite imagery read by Naval News suggests two of the fleet’s most capable frigates were hit, which Russia has not acknowledged. On August 17–18 at least five grain ships were struck near Novorossiysk and Tuapse, the first such strikes at Russian ports, though the attacker was not named; they came days after Moscow rejected Ukraine’s proposal for a moratorium on Black Sea strikes. On September 3 sea drones reached Sochi for the first time, about 820 kilometres by sea, hitting an oil-and-gas support ship. Ukraine’s navy says the Russian fleet has kept its missile-armed warships in port for three months, a claim no published data yet tests.
Chapter 3
The cost runs both ways
The cost runs both ways. Russia’s strikes on Odesa’s ports with Banderol jet-powered loitering munitions cut traffic there from seven or eight ships a day to one, by the account of Ukraine’s ports association. Russia’s grain trade has been squeezed from the other side: between July and September it moved about 1.3 million tons of grain and oilseed through alternative ports, roughly a tenth of what its Black Sea ports could have handled, and rail loadings at its Baltic ports rose sharply. The Institute for the Study of War ties that shortfall to Ukraine’s strikes on Russia’s Black Sea terminals; the link is its reading.
Chapter 4
In October the attacks reached shipping off Romania and Bulgaria
In October the attacks reached shipping off Romania and Bulgaria. Between October 5 and 15 drones struck a Turkish-owned corn carrier, ships flagged in Togo and Palau, and more vessels near the Danube mouth, sinking several; two sailors were killed and seven were missing after the last round, and two of the ships were hit inside Romania’s territorial waters. Romania’s foreign minister blames Russia and an unnamed NATO official told Reuters the drones were Russian; Bulgaria calls them unidentified. Ukraine’s president said his navy had established with Bulgaria’s that the attack was Russian, which Bulgaria has not confirmed. Off Sochi, meanwhile, a tanker burned after what Russia’s transport ministry said was a naval-drone strike; Kyiv did not comment. What is unresolved is who is attacking the ships off the two NATO coasts, on evidence a coastal state will stand behind, and what the attacks will do to insurance, port calls and the grain trade that runs past them.
And now
The Black Sea is now deadlier for seafarers than the Gulf, and the ships hit off NATO coasts now include one bound for a NATO port.
On October 23 a drone sank the Khoryv, a Comoros-flagged cargo ship heading for the Danube mouth, just outside Romania’s waters; one sailor died and three are missing. On October 28 three sea drones struck the Contship Jet, a container ship sailing from Haifa to Romania’s Constanța, off Bulgaria. It sank, and all 18 crew were rescued. No one has claimed either attack: Romania’s president blames Russia’s aggression, and Bulgaria’s prime minister says suspicion of Russia cannot be proven.
By Ambrey and IMO figures, more than 570 ships have been attacked in the Black Sea this year and at least 40 seafarers killed, against 24 around Hormuz. Ukraine’s exporters are rerouting: Kernel’s oil sales halved over the summer, and Constanța has more than tripled its Ukrainian grain.
Russia’s own grain exports through its Black Sea and Azov terminals fell 94 per cent in September, by industry data. On October 28 it reopened the Sea of Azov to grain ships for the first time since July, with a naval escort planned.
Where it stands today →