Chapter 1
All 435 House seats are on the ballot on 3 November 2026
All 435 House seats are on the ballot on 3 November 2026. Republicans hold 218 and Democrats 214, with one independent and two seats vacant. Inside Elections puts the net gain Democrats need for a majority at three, so the chamber can change hands on a shift of a few seats.
Chapter 2
This election is being fought on a different map from the last one in…
This election is being fought on a different map from the last one in nine states: Alabama, California, Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and Utah, after a round of mid-decade redrawing that began in Texas in 2025. Four more states tried and did not. The Associated Press counts seven of the nine maps as favouring Republicans and estimates they could be worth up to nine seats if each performs as designed; how each map came to be, and what each analyst says it is worth, is the story of the new maps.
Chapter 3
An unusually large number of seats have no incumbent running
An unusually large number of seats have no incumbent running. Sixty members are not seeking re-election, 37 of them Republicans, against 45 at the same point two years earlier. Eleven more lost primaries. What remains open is how the new maps and the national mood interact. The Associated Press, which put the maps’ value to Republicans at up to nine seats, notes that a good year for Democrats could reduce it.
And now
With the vote on 3 November, the three main ratings firms all project Democrats gaining far more than the three seats they need. Cook moved 19 more races toward Democrats on 23 October and raised its projection to a gain of 12 to 22, from 9 to 19; it rates 220 seats at least Lean Democrat and 17 Toss Up, 12 of them Republican-held. Inside Elections’ Nathan Gonzales put its range at 10 to 20 the same day, unchanged since 15 October.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved 16 more races on 27 October, per The Hill, nearly 50 in the month. Texas’s 15th, which Trump carried by nearly 20 points, now leans Democratic in its ratings, and open seats in Kentucky and Montana became toss-ups.
The contest has narrowed to a short list: by States Newsroom’s count, 16 races are Toss-ups for at least two of the three firms, and five — Florida’s 14th, Michigan’s 7th, New York’s 17th and Ohio’s 7th and 9th — for all three. New Times/Siena polls of four Pennsylvania seats found Democrats ahead in three and tied in Scott Perry’s 10th.
The chamber stands at 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies.
Where it stands today →