Updated Oct 29

The National Picture

The Democratic lead on the generic ballot held near its high in the campaign’s last full week. Silver Bulletin’s average stood at 8.7 points on 28 October, after peaking at 9.2; its likely-voter version reads 9.2. Ballotpedia’s 30-day average rose to 51% to 43%.

Likely-voter polls finishing 20–26 October ranged from Democrats ahead by 5 (Rasmussen) to 9 (Reuters/Ipsos, Economist/YouGov, Cygnal) and 11 in Prolific’s opt-in panel. Marist, polling likely voters for the first time this campaign, found 52% to 44%; Harvard-Harris, the closest, had 52% to 48% among registered voters.

Donald Trump’s approval rebounded about a point from its low in Silver Bulletin’s average, to 37.4%, with about 60% disapproving. Marist found 61% of registered voters disapproving, the most in either of his terms.

Gallup found the lowest share in any final pre-midterm reading since 1994 saying their own representative deserves re-election — 43% — and Congress’s approval at 14%, a pre-midterm low since 1974.

New Oct 29

The whole story4 chapters

The state of it — as of October 29, 2026

Democratic lead (points)

Silver Bulletin average

Ballotpedia 30-day average

Month

Democratic lead on the generic ballot, as published by two named aggregators. No average is computed here.

8.7

point Democratic lead on the generic ballot, in Silver Bulletin’s average
8 in Ballotpedia’s 30-day average
−0.5 since Oct 2026

-24.3

Trump’s net approval, in Silver Bulletin’s average
−2 since Oct 2026

Today

All new

Oct 28, 2026

Record-Low Shares Say Their Own Representative Deserves Re-election, Gallup Finds

In Gallup’s 1–19 October poll, 43% of registered voters said their own member of Congress deserves re-election and 15% said most members do — both the lowest of any final pre-midterm reading since 1994, when the ranges had been 50–69% and 21–58%. Approval of Congress was 14%, the lowest Gallup has measured ahead of a midterm since 1974. Gallup notes that similarly negative moods have accompanied widely varying midterm outcomes.

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Gallup

Oct 27, 2026

Marist Switches to Likely Voters and Finds Democrats Ahead by Eight

The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll applied a likely-voter screen for the first time this campaign, weighting all registered voters by each one’s estimated chance of voting. Its 19–20 October survey, released 27 October, had Democratic congressional candidates ahead 52% to 44% among likely voters and by 10 among registered voters, down from 12 in September. Trump’s approval was 40% among likely voters and 38% among registered voters, where the 61% disapproving is the highest Marist has recorded in either of his terms.

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Marist PollNPRPBS NewsHour

Earlier this month

Oct 21, 2026

Democrats’ Generic-Ballot Lead Reaches New Highs in Both Named Averages

Silver Bulletin’s average put Democrats 9.2 points ahead on 21 October, its highest of the campaign, after the lead had levelled off in mid-October; its likely-voter version reads 9.7. Ballotpedia’s 30-day average moved to 50% to 42%, from a seven-point lead. Three pollsters printed their own series highs: Reuters/Ipsos found 47% to 35% among registered voters, CNN/SSRS 49% to 39%, and Strength In Numbers/Verasight 54% to 42% among likely voters. Rasmussen’s likely voters were closer, at 48% to 44%. The Times/Siena poll’s 52% to 41% named each district’s candidates, so it is not a generic-ballot reading.

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Silver BulletinBallotpediaIpsosUSA TodayCNNStrength In Numbers (G. Elliott Morris)Rasmussen ReportsThe New York Times

Oct 21, 2026

Trump’s Approval Hits Series Lows at Reuters/Ipsos, CNN and Times/Siena

Three polls taken 12-19 October recorded Donald Trump’s lowest approval in their own series. Reuters/Ipsos found 31% of adults approving and 66% disapproving. CNN/SSRS found 32%, a point below its previous low, with 74% approval among Republicans. Times/Siena found 36% among likely voters and 34% among registered voters; the Times calls it the lowest for a president heading into a midterm since Harry Truman in 1946. Silver Bulletin’s average of his net approval fell to minus 24.3 on 21 October, a new low, about two points down on the week.

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IpsosUSA TodayCNNThe New York TimesPolitico EuropeSilver Bulletin

Oct 14, 2026

Trump’s Approval Sets New Lows in Fox’s Poll and Silver Bulletin’s Average

Donald Trump’s approval fell to 36% among registered voters in the Fox News poll taken 9-12 October, the lowest in a series Fox has asked since February 2017; it had held at 39% since May. AP-NORC, polling 8-12 October, also found 36%. Silver Bulletin’s average of his net approval touched minus 23.9 over the weekend of 10-11 October, a new low, before recovering to minus 22.4.

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Fox NewsFox NewsAP-NORC Center for Public Affairs ResearchSilver Bulletin

Oct 8, 2026

Pew Finds Democratic Voters More Engaged Than Republicans, Reversing 2022

Pew Research Center’s survey of 28 September to 4 October found registered voters preferring the Democrat for the House in their district by 44% to 36%, with 15% unsure. Those backing Democrats were the more engaged: 63% said they were extremely motivated to vote, against 46% of those backing Republicans, and 50% against 36% had given the election a lot of thought. In October 2022 Republicans led both measures. Forty-four percent of voters called their vote one against Donald Trump and 19% one for him. Pew named the candidates in each respondent’s district and reported registered voters, not likely ones.

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Pew Research CenterPew Research CenterPew Research Center

Oct 8, 2026

Trump’s Approval Falls to 30% in Pew’s Survey, the Lowest of His Second Term

Pew found 30% of adults approving of Donald Trump’s performance and 68% disapproving, down from 34% in July and close to the 29% it recorded at the end of his first term. Among people who voted for him in 2024, approval fell to 67% from 75% in July. Reuters/Ipsos, polling over the same days, found 32% approving and 65% disapproving. Silver Bulletin’s average of his net approval set a new low of minus 23.5 in early October and then read minus 21.9, a recovery it put down largely to a single poll.

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Pew Research CenterPew Research CenterIpsosSilver Bulletin

Oct 6, 2026

YouGov Retires the Likely-Voter Screen Behind Its 16-Point Democratic Lead

YouGov dropped the definition of a likely voter it used in its September polls for The Economist. That screen counted people who said they would definitely vote though not yet registered, and it gave Democrats a 16-point lead in late September, against 6 points among voters already registered. Its chief scientist, Douglas Rivers, wrote that the figure “is almost certainly an overstatement”. YouGov now publishes two screens. In its poll of 2 to 5 October the strict one put Democrats ahead 52% to 40% and the loose one 51% to 40%; registered voters split 47% to 38%.

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YouGovYouGovYouGov

Oct 5, 2026

The TL;DR version is that there is a range of plausible Democratic margins—between about 8 and 14 points—that come from defensible data choices. The 16-point Democratic margin comes from a mix of assumptions that all push the result in Democrats’ favor and that should probably be discounted. This is still an uncomfortably wide range.

— Douglas Rivers

Not yet checked

Written of the national vote for the House, from YouGov’s own polling. Read as a stated range of 8 to 14 points for the Democratic margin; settled by the certified national House vote.

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YouGovYouGov

Oct 2, 2026

Democrats’ Generic-Ballot Lead Reaches Nine Points in One Average, Seven in Another

Silver Bulletin’s average of generic-ballot polls put Democrats 9.0 points ahead, up from 6.7 at the start of September; it called that the party’s high point of the cycle. Ballotpedia’s 30-day average read 50 to 43, a lead of seven. Recent individual polls agree on direction and differ on size: Quinnipiac found 51 to 39 among registered voters in late September, and PBS/NPR/Marist 53 to 41 in mid-September. Of ten polls Ballotpedia lists from the second half of September, nine show a Democratic lead; Harvard-Harris shows a tie.

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Silver BulletinBallotpediaQuinnipiac University PollPBS NewsHour

Oct 2, 2026

Trump’s Net Approval Sits at Minus 22.7 in Silver Bulletin’s Average

Silver Bulletin’s average put Donald Trump’s net approval at minus 22.7, a fraction above what it called an all-time low of minus 23. At the same point in his first term the figure was minus 11.0. Quinnipiac’s late-September poll of registered voters found 34% approving and 61% disapproving, equalling the highest disapproval it has recorded for him. PBS/NPR/Marist found 39% and 59% in mid-September. An AP-NORC poll of adults found about three in ten approving, and 26% approving of his handling of the economy.

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Silver BulletinQuinnipiac University PollPBS NewsHourAssociated Press

This quarter

Sep 23, 2026

I don’t think 40 seats is remotely in play

— Lee Miringoff

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PBS NewsHour

Aug 25, 2026

Eleven House Special Elections, No Seat Changed Party

Eleven House special elections have been held since January 2025. Each seat stayed with its party, but the margins moved. In Florida’s 1st District the Republican won by 15 points where the previous margin was 32; in Florida’s 6th, by 14 after 33; in Tennessee’s 7th, by 9 after 22; in Georgia’s 14th, by 12 after 29. Democrats widened their margins in New Jersey’s 11th and Arizona’s 7th. California’s 1st went the other way, to a larger Republican margin. These are Ballotpedia’s figures, not certified returns; two contests that may have been same-party are left out.

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Ballotpedia

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