Chapter 1
Three things can be measured about the country as a whole before it…
Three things can be measured about the country as a whole before it votes: which party people say they will support for Congress, what they think of the president, and how they have actually voted in the elections held since the last one. None of them is the election. Each is a reading, taken by someone, with a method.
Chapter 2
The generic ballot asks which party a voter wants for Congress without…
The generic ballot asks which party a voter wants for Congress without naming candidates. Through September 2026 it moved toward Democrats. Silver Bulletin’s average, which weights polls by the pollster’s record and adjusts for each firm’s lean, went from a Democratic lead of 6.7 points to 9.0. Ballotpedia’s simpler 30-day average stood at seven. Individual polls ranged from a tie to a 15-point Democratic lead, and they are not asking quite the same question of the same people: some survey all registered voters, some only those judged likely to vote, and Quinnipiac asks which party a voter wants in control rather than whom they will vote for.
Chapter 3
Presidential approval is the second reading
Presidential approval is the second reading. Donald Trump’s net approval in Silver Bulletin’s average is minus 22.7, about twice as negative as at the same point in his first term. In the PBS/NPR/Marist poll, 45% of registered voters said their vote for Congress would mostly be to oppose him and 24% to support him.
Chapter 4
The third reading is the one made with ballots
The third reading is the one made with ballots. Eleven special elections to the House have been held since January 2025. Every seat stayed with its party. In four Republican-held seats outside California the winning margin fell by 13 to 19 points against the previous election, and in two Democratic-held seats it grew. What none of these readings settles is how they translate into seats. The pollster who found Democrats 12 points ahead also said a 40-seat gain was not in play. A lead of the same size in his September 2018 poll came before a 40-seat gain, but redistricting has since narrowed the field of competitive seats.
And now
The Democratic lead on the generic ballot held near its high in the campaign’s last full week. Silver Bulletin’s average stood at 8.7 points on 28 October, after peaking at 9.2; its likely-voter version reads 9.2. Ballotpedia’s 30-day average rose to 51% to 43%.
Likely-voter polls finishing 20–26 October ranged from Democrats ahead by 5 (Rasmussen) to 9 (Reuters/Ipsos, Economist/YouGov, Cygnal) and 11 in Prolific’s opt-in panel. Marist, polling likely voters for the first time this campaign, found 52% to 44%; Harvard-Harris, the closest, had 52% to 48% among registered voters.
Donald Trump’s approval rebounded about a point from its low in Silver Bulletin’s average, to 37.4%, with about 60% disapproving. Marist found 61% of registered voters disapproving, the most in either of his terms.
Gallup found the lowest share in any final pre-midterm reading since 1994 saying their own representative deserves re-election — 43% — and Congress’s approval at 14%, a pre-midterm low since 1974.
Where it stands today →